Guides · Iron Condor
Does the VIX tell you how a 0DTE Iron Condor will go?
The VIX at yesterday's close said a lot about how much SPX would move: the average daily range went from 0.72% when it closed below 15 to 3.67% when it closed at 30 or above. It said much less about how Iron Condor trades would end: across the 21,060 configurations we test, the average result did not differ between VIX levels beyond what chance produces, and results had a similar shape from below 15 up to 25–30. The 15 sessions at 30 or above look different, too few to tell whether that is chance. This describes the strategy across every configuration tested, not any configuration in particular, and it is not a recommendation.
Data through 2026-10-14
Last reviewed: 2026-10-15
What the VIX is, and which one we use
The VIX measures how much volatility the options market prices into the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. We group each session by the VIX close of the previous trading day, the number you can see before the open. The VIX regime filter in the app groups sessions by that day's close, which is known only after the close. See also Iron Condor and 0DTE.
How we measured
- 3+ years of SPX sessions, from 2023-01-03 to 2026-10-14; sessions without a previous VIX close are excluded.
- 21,060 Iron Condor configurations and 15,783,240 trades, evaluated on 100 ms option quotes under the TAT template - Vertical Stop profile, the default in 2manyoptions. Execution is modeled; broker fees are not included.
- The five levels are the app's: below 15, 15–20, 20–25, 25–30, and 30 or above.
- SPX daily range is the distance from the day's high to its low, as a share of the open.
What changes: how much SPX moves
| VIX at the previous close | Sessions | Average SPX daily range |
|---|---|---|
| Below 15 | 274 | 0.72% |
| 15–20 | 505 | 0.98% |
| 20–25 | 128 | 1.35% |
| 25–30 | 26 | 1.55% |
| 30 or above | 15 | 3.67% |
The higher the VIX, the bigger the day: the average range at 30 or above was about 5.1× the range below 15.
What changes less: how trades end
A difference seen on 15 sessions is not a signal; this page describes history, not when to trade.
Each shape shows how trades ended at that VIX level, from losses on the left to gains on the right. From below 15 up to 25–30 the shapes look alike: the same peaks and the same left tail appear.
The shape at 30 or above rests on only 15 sessions and differs more. With so few days, one more session can change it.
No difference in the average result between levels stood out from what chance alone can produce in samples of this size.
A likely reason, not measured here: configurations pick their strikes by premium. When the VIX is high, the same premium sits further from the price, so bigger moves meet more room.
What this cannot tell you
- Only 26 sessions had the VIX between 25 and 30, and 15 at 30 or above: small samples can look different by chance.
- A shape over all configurations says nothing about a specific one.
- Fills, stops and costs are modeled, not observed.
- History is not a forecast.
- Iron Fly is not covered yet.
Explore it yourself
The VIX regime filter in Analytics and Monte Carlo shows any configuration across VIX levels (it uses the day's close).
FAQ
Does a high VIX mean an Iron Condor will lose?
Not clearly. Across all configurations tested since 2023, the average result did not differ between VIX levels beyond what chance produces; what grew with the VIX was how much SPX moved. The 15 sessions at 30 or above look different, but they are too few to tell. Past results do not predict future ones.
Which VIX does this guide use?
The previous trading day's close, known before the open.
Does this cover Iron Fly?
Not yet.